Michael Dettinger

 CALIFORNIA HYDROCLIMATOLOGY

 

2023

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• "Keeping water in climate-changed headwaters longer," by Dettinger, Wilson, McGurk, San Franciscos Estuary and Watershed Science.

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• "From California's extreme drought to major flooding--Evaluating and synthesizing experimental seasonal and subseasonal forecasts of landfalling atmospheric rivers and extreme precipitation during Winter 2022-2023," DeFlorio et al, Bulletin American Meteorological Society.

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• "Observed and projected changes in snow accumulation and snowline in California's snowy mountains," by Shulgina et al, Climate Dynamics.

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• "Simulated hydrologic responses to climate-change projections for the Lake Tahoe Basin," Dettinger & Rajagopal, Desert Research Institute Publication 41292; executive summary; and poster.

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• "A 440-yr reconstruction of heavy precipitation in California from blue oak rings," by Howard, Stahle, Dettinger, et al., Journal of Hydrometeorology; heavy-precip data series.

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2022

 

• "An instrumental and paleoclimate perspective on spring precipitation and Miracle March in California," by Ian Howard et al., CW3E Explainer.

 

2020

 

• "Fighting fire with fire--Forecast-Informated Reservoir Operations, flood, and drought in California", by Dettinger, Ralph, Jasperse, and Talbot, AWRA Water Resources Impact.

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• "Forecast-informed reservoir operations using ensemble streamflow predictions for a multipurpose reservoir in Northern California," by Delaney et al., Water Resources Research.

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• "Observations of an extremed atmospheric river storm with a diverse sensor network," by Hatchett et al., Earth and Space Science.

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• "California's 21st Century Megadrought," by Mount and Dettinger, PPIC Blog.

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2019

 

• "A 142-yr climatology of northern California landslides and atmospheric rivers," by Cordeira, Stock, Dettinger, Young, Kalansky, and Ralph, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

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• "Climate, snow, and soil moisture data set for the Tuolumne and Merced river watersheds, California, USA," by Roche et al,  Earth System Science Data.

 

2018

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• "Hourly analyses of the large storms and atmospheric rivers that provide most of California's precipitation in only 10 to 100 hours per year," by Lamjiri et al., San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science.

 

• "California's drought of the future--A midcentury recreation of the exceptional conditions of 2012-2017," by Ullrich et al., Earth's Future.

 

• "California Fourth Climate Change Assessment Sierra Nevada Region Report," by Dettinger et al, C4CCA region report.

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2017 

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• "Preliminary Viability Assessment of Lake Mendocino forecast-informed reservoir operations," by FIRO Steering Committee.

 

2016 

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• "Perspectives on Bay-Delta Science and Policy," by Healey, Dettinger & Norgaard, San Francisco Estuary & Watershed Science.

 

• "Yosemite Hydroclimate Network--Distributed stream and atmospheric data for the Tuolumne River watershed and surroundings," by Lundquist et al., Water Resources Research.

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• "Introduction: Special issue on the ARkStorm Scenario--California's other Big One," by Porter, Cox, Dettinger & Ralph, Natural Hazards Review.

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• "Historical and future relations between large storms and drought in California," by Dettinger, San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science.

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• "The State of Bay-Delta Science 2016--An introduction," by Healey, Goodwin, Dettinger and Norgaard, San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science.

 

2015 

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• "Climate change impacts on lake thermal dynamics and ecosystem vulnerabilities," by Sahoo, Forrest, Schladow, Reuter, Coats, and Dettinger, Limnology and Oceanography.

 

• "Application of an extreme winter storm scenario to identify vulnerabilities, mitigation options, and science needs in the Sierra Nevada mountains, USA," by Albano, Dettinger, McCarthy, Schaller, Welborn, and Cox, Natural Hazards.

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• "Storage in California's reservoirs and snowpack in this time of drought," by Dettinger and Anderson, San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science, or expanded tumblr version. 

 

• "Promoting atmospheric-river and snowmelt-fueld biogeomorphic processes by restoring river-floodplain connectivity in California's Central Valley," by Florsheim and Dettinger, Chapter 6 in Geomorphic approaches to integrated floodplain management of lowland fluvial systems in North America and Europe.

 

• "Sturm und Drang--California's remarkable storm-drought connection," by Dettinger, Hydrolink. 

 

2014

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• "ARkStorm@Tahoe--Stakeholder perspectives report," by Albano, Cox, Dettinger, Schaller, Welborn, and McCarthy, University of Nevada Reno Cooperative Extension report SR-14-16.

 

• "Drought and the California Delta--A matter of extremes," by Dettinger and Cayan, San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science.

 

2013

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• "Historic and likely future impacts of climate change on Lake Tahoe, California-Nevada, USA," by Coats et al., Chapter 14 in Climatic Change and Global Warming of Inland Waters--Impacts and Mitigation for Ecosystems and Societies, Goldman et al. (eds.), 231-254.

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• "A 21st Century California observing network for monitoring extreme weather events," by White, Anderson, Dettinger, Ralph, Hinajosa, Cayan, Hartman, Reynolds, Johnson, Schneider, Cifelli, Toth, Gutman, King, Gehrke, Johnston, Walls, Mann, Gottas, and Coleman, Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology.

 

• "Increases in flood magnitudes in California under warming climates," by Das, Maurer, Pierce, Dettinger and Cayan, Journal of Hydrology.

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• "San Diego, 2050 is Calling. How will we answer?," San Diego Foundation report. 

 

• "The ancient blue oak woodlands of California--Longevity and hydroclimatic history," by Stahle, Griffin, Meko, Therrell, Edmondson, Cleaveland, Stahle, Burnette, Abatzoglou, Redmond, Dettinger and Cayan, Earth Interactions.

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• "Observed impacts of duration and seasonality of atmospheric-river landfalls on soil moisture and runoff in coastal Northern California," by Ralph, Coleman, Neiman, Zamora and Dettinger, Journal of Hydrometeorology.

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• "Implications for future survival of Delta Smelt from four climate change scenarios for the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, California," by Brown, Bennett, Wagner, Morgan-King, Knowles, Feyrer, Schoellhamer, Stacey and Dettinger, Eastuaries and Coasts.

 

• "The coming megastorms," by Dettinger and Ingram, Scientific American; also published in German edition as "Die Nachste Sinflut", in French edition as "Les rivieres atmospheriques", in Spanish edition as "Las proximas megainundaciones".

 

2012

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• "Modeling the transport of nutrients and sediment loads into Lake Tahoe under projected climatic changes," by Riverson, Coats, Costa-Cabral, Dettinger, Reuter, Sahoo, and Schladow, Climatic Change.

 

• "The response of Lake Tahoe to climate change," by Sahoo, Schladow, Reuter, Coats, Dettinger, Riverson, Wolfe, Costa-Cabral, Climatic Change.

 

• "How large (in the scheme of things) are precipitation extremes in California's mountains?", by Ralph and Dettinger, Mountain Views (Newsletter of CIRMOUNT).

 

• "Design and quantification of an extreme winter storm scenario for emergency preparedness and planning exercises in California," by Dettinger, Ralph, Hughes, Das, Neiman, Cox, Estes, Reynolds, Hartman, Cayan, and Jones, Natural Hazards.

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2011

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• "Potential increase in floods in California's Sierra Nevada under future climate change projections," by Das, Dettinger, Cayan, and Hidalgo, Climatic Change.

 

• "Projected evolution of California's San Francisco Bay-Delta-River system in a century of climate change," by Cloern, Knowles, Brown, Cayan, Dettinger, Morgan, Schoellhamer, Stacey, van der Wegen, Wagner, and Jassby, 2011, PLoS one.

 

• "Climate change, atmospheric rivers and floods in California--A multimodel analysis of storm frequency and magnitude changes," by Dettinger, JAWRA.

 

• "A tree-ring reconstruction of the salinity gradient in the northern estuary of San Francisco Bay," by Stahle, Griffin, Cleaveland, Edmondson, Fye, Burnette, Abatzoglou, Redmond, Meko, Dettinger, Cayan, and Therrell, San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science.

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• "Atmospheric rivers, floods and the water resources of California," by Dettinger, Ralph, Das, Neiman, and Cayan, Water.

 

• "Statistical models of temperature in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta under climate-change scenarios and ecological implications," by Wagner, Stacey, Brown, and Dettinger, Estuaries and Coasts.

 

• "Overview of the ARkStorm Scenario," by Porter and others, USGS Open File Report 2010-1312.

 

2010

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• "Regional downscaling for stable water isotopes--A case study of an atmospheric river event," by Yoshimura, Kanamitsu, and Dettinger, Journal of Geophysical Research (Atmospheres).

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2009

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• "2012 Central Valley Flood Protection Plan--Climate Change Scope Definition Work Group Summary Report," by Central Valley Flood Management Planning Program Climate Change Scope Definition Work Group.

 

• "Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change," by Brekke, Maurer, Anderson, Dettinger, Townsley, Harrison, and Pruitt, Water Resources Research.

 

• "Climate change scenarios and sea level rise estimates for the California 2008 climate change scenarios assessment," by Cayan, Tyree, Dettinger, Hidalgo, Das, Maurer, Bromirski, Graham, and Flick, CEC Report CEC-500-2009-014-D.

 

• "Projections of potential flood regime changes in California," by Dettinger, Hidalgo, Das, Cayan, and Knowles, CEC Report CEC-500-2009-050-D.

 

2008

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• "San Diego Focus 2050 Working Paper: Water," by Dettinger and LaRiviere, San Diego Foundation report.

 

• "Extreme changes in stable hydrogen isotopes and precipitation characteristics in a landfalling Pacific storm," by Coplen, Neiman, White, Landwehr, Ralph, and Dettinger, Geophysical Research Letters.

 

• "State of Bay-Delta Science, 2008," by Healey, Dettinger and Norgaard (eds.), CALFED Science Program report (5.6 Mb).

 

• "Impact of climate variation on mosquito abundance in California," by Reisen, Cayan, Tyree, Barker, Eldridge, and Dettinger, Journal of Vector Ecology.

 

• "Significance of model credibility in estimating climate projection distributions for regional hydroclimatologic risk assessments," by Brekke, Dettinger, Maurer, and Anderson, Climatic Change.

 

• "Internalizing climate change--Scientific resource management and the climate change challenges," by Dettinger and Culberson, San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science.

 

• "Modeling soil moisture processes and recahrge under a melting snowpack," by Flint, Flint, and Dettinger, Vadose Zone Journal.

 

• "Climate change scenarios for the California region," by Cayan, Maurer, Dettinger, Tyree, and Hayhoe, Climatic Change.

 

• "Climate change projections of sea level extremes along the California coast," by Cayan, Bromirski, Hayhoe, Tyree, Dettinger, and Flick, Climatic Change.

 

• "The State of Bay-Delta Science 2008--Summary for policymakers and the public," by Healey, Dettinger, and Norgaard, CALFED report.

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2007

 

• "Climate and floods still govern California levee breaks," Florsheim and Dettinger, Geophysical Research Letters.

 

• "Holocene climates and connections between the San Francisco Bay estuary and its watershed--A review", by Malamud-Roam, Dettinger, Ingram, Hughes, and Florsheim, San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science.

 

2006

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• "The 16 May 2005 flood in Yosemite--A glimpse into high-country flood generation in the Sierra Nevada," by Dettinger, Lundquist, Cayan, and Meyer, poster.

 

2005

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• "Influence of 19th and 20th Century landscape modifications on likely geomorphic responses to climate change in San Francisco Bay-Delta and watershed," by Florsheim and Dettinger, Watershed Management Council Networker.  

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• "River chemistry as a monitor of Yosemite Park mountain hydroclimates," by Peterson, Smith, Hager, Hicke, Dettinger and Huber, Eos.

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• "Snow-fed streamflow timing at different basin scales--Case study of the Tuolumne River above Hetch Hetchy, Yosemite, California," by Lundquist, Dettinger, and Cayan, Water Resources Research.

 

• "How snowpack heterogeneity affects diurnal streamflow timing," by Lundquist and Dettinger, Water Resources Research.

 

• "A long-term (~50-yr) historical perspective on flood-generating winter storms in the American River basin," by Dettinger, Proc., 2005 California Extreme Precipitation Symposium.

 

• "Precipitation-runoff processes in the Feather River basin, Northeastern California, with prospects for streamflow predictability, water years 1971-97," by Koczot, Jeton, McGurk, and Dettinger, USGS Scientific Investigations Report 2004-5202.

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• "From climate-change spaghetti to climate-change distributions for 21st Century California," by Dettinger, San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science.

 

2004 

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• "Winter orographic-precipitation ratios in the Sierra Nevada--Large-scale atmospheric circulations and hydrologic consequences," by Dettinger, Redmond, and Cayan, Journal of Hydrometeorology. 

 

• "Simulated hydrologic responses to climate variations and change in the Merced, Carson, and American Rivers, Sierra Nevada, 1900-2099" by Dettinger, Cayan, Meyer, and Jeton, Climatic Change.

 

• "Spring onset in the Sierra Nevada--When is snowmelt independent of elevation?," by Lundquist, Cayan, and Dettinger, Journal of Hydrometeorology.

 

2003

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• "Interseasonal covariability of Sierra Nevada streamflow and San Francisco Bay salinity," by Dettinger and Cayan, Journal of Hydrology.

 

• "Climate effects of Pacific Decadal Oscillation on streamflow of the Feather River, California," by Koczot and Dettinger, 2003 Western Snow Conference.

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• "Climate science issues and needs of the CALFED Bay-Delta Program", by Dettinger et al., American Meteorological Society's 83rd Annual Meeting, Impacts of Water Availability, Long Beach, CA.

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2002

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• "Thermodynamic evolution of snowpack at Gin Flat, Yosemite National Park, Winter-Spring 2002," by Dettinger and Gerkhe, poster for 2002 Sierra Nevada Science Symposium.

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2001

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• "Streamflow changes in the Sierra Nevada, California, simulated using a statistically downscaled general circulation model scenario of climate change," by Wilby and Dettinger, 2001, Chapter 6 in "Linking climate change to land surface change" (McLaren and Kniveton, eds., Kluwer Academic Publishers).

 

• "Ancient blue oaks reveal human impact on San Francisco Bay salinity," by Stahle, Therrell, Cleveland, Cayan, Dettinger, and Knowles, Eos.

 

• "Droughts, epic droughts and droughty centuries--Lessons from California's paleoclimatic record: A PACLIM 2001 Meeting Report," by Dettinger, Interagency Ecological Program for the San Francisco Estuary Newsletter.

 

• "Historical severe December-January floods in Yosemite Valley, with implications for climate change," a talk at the NCAR/ACACIA Extreme Precipitation Events Workshop, slides.

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1999

 

•  "Global to Local Scale Simulations of Streamflow in the Merced, American, and Carson Rivers, Sierra Nevada, California," by Dettinger, Mo, Cayan, and Jeton, American Meteorological Society's 14th Conference on Hydrology, Dallas, Tx, Jan 1999.

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• "A River Runs Through It" and "Lilacs Tell of Early Spring," in SIO Explorations Now, Summer 1999. 

 

1997

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• "Forecasting spring runoff pulses from the Sierra Nevada," by Michael Dettinger, David Peterson, Henry Diaz, and Dan Cayan, Interagency Ecological Studies Program for the Sacramento-San Joaquin Estuary Newsletter, Summer 1997. 

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1996 

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• "San Francisco Bay salinity--Observations, numerical simulation, and statistical models," by Petersm Cayan, Dettinger, Noble, Riddle, Schemel, Smith, Uncles, and Walters, AAAS Monograph "San Francisco Bay--The Ecosystem", Chapter 2.

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•  Click for SF Bay Winter Hydroclimatology Movies, 1996.

 

• "Potential Effects of Climate Change on Streamflow, eastern and western slopes of the Sierra Nevada, California and Nevada," by Jeton, Dettinger, and Smith, US Geological Survey Water-Resources Investigations Report 95-4260.  

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1995

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• "Sierra Nevada runoff into San Francisco Bay--Why has it come earlier recently?", by Mike Dettinger, Dan Cayan, and Dave Peterson, Interagency Ecological Studies Program for the Sacramento-San Joaquin Estuary Newsletter. 

 

• "The role of climate in estuarine variability", by David H. Peterson, Daniel R. Cayan, Jeanne DiLeo, Marlene Noble, and Michael Dettinger, American Scientist.

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1992 

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• "Climate-change scenarios for the Sierra Nevada, California, based on winter atmospheric-circulation patterns," by Dettinger and Cayan, AWRA Managing Water Resources during Global Change proceedings.

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